Mapping Ebola Outbreak and Community Transmission Risks

Our Approach

Fraym recently mapped risks and vulnerabilities to the next Ebola outbreak in Rwanda and Sierra Leone based on:

  • Risk of an initial Ebola outbreak, due to zoonotic or cross-border transmission;
  • Risk of rapid community transmission of Ebola following an outbreak; and
  • Vulnerabilities in the health system’s capacity to respond to an Ebola outbreak.

Next, we classified health facilities – transforming the prioritization of health system resources and ensuring staff, protective equipment and eventually vaccines are optimally allocated to disrupt Ebola.

Below is just one example of how this data can be used to support the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA):

What is our goal?

The main goal is to allocate resources, including health staff, personal protective equipment (PPE), and Ebola vaccines (once available) to communities most at-risk to rapid community transmission of Ebola following a potential outbreak in Rwanda.

Where should we allocate resources and the initial batches of Ebola vaccines?

To disrupt rapid community transmission, we should prioritize Tier 1 and Tier 3 health facilities with low Health System Vulnerability (1b, 3b) as they have greater capacity to respond to an Ebola outbreak and efficiently immunize at-risk groups once vaccines are available. 

Who should we prioritize?

Households served by Tier 1b  and Tier 3b health facilities that are both at risk to Ebola and without significant access barriers to medical treatment and eventual vaccines.

If you would like more information about this study or about our global health work, contact us or get in touch with our Global Health Secotr Lead, Kenneth Davis, at [email protected] for more info.

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